2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 28

SpVgg Greuther Fürth–SC Paderborn 07

0–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 5 April 2026 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Fürth

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

51'SC Paderborn 07S. Marino (assist: L. Curda)
86'SC Paderborn 07F. Bilbija (assist: S. Tigges)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SpVgg Greuther Fürth		SC Paderborn 07
16	Shots	15
4	Shots on target	4
9	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	4
5	Offsides	1
57%	Possession	43%
496	Passes	380
414	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.13 · SC Paderborn 07 1.86. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots SpVgg Greuther Fürth 16 · SC Paderborn 07 15; on target 4 and 4.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

L. Erbst→

4.11

yellows per match

0.32

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.5%: “SC Paderborn 07 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.20 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 1.90 for SC Paderborn 07.
The highest double chance value is 77.5% (X2 — draw or SC Paderborn 07 win).
These values were computed from 1,165 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win22.5%

Draw24.0%

SC Paderborn 07 to win53.5%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

SpVgg Greuther Fürth lead at half-time26.9%

Level at half-time40.6%

SC Paderborn 07 lead at half-time32.5%

First-half double chance

1X — SpVgg Greuther Fürth ahead or level67.5%

12 — not level at half-time59.4%

X2 — level or SC Paderborn 07 ahead73.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1165 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SpVgg Greuther Fürth: at least 10Actual: 10
SC Paderborn 07: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

SpVgg Greuther Fürth: at least 4Actual: 3
SC Paderborn 07: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SpVgg Greuther Fürth score1.13

Attack: SpVgg Greuther Fürth score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SC Paderborn 07 concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SC Paderborn 07 score1.86

Attack: SC Paderborn 07 score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: SpVgg Greuther Fürth concede 19% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.86 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.6%1–210.8%0–28.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.