2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 28

FC Schalke 04–Karlsruher SC

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 5 April 2026 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: VELTINS-Arena, Gelsenkirchen

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

72'FC Schalke 04K. Karaman (assist: M. N'Diaye)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Schalke 04		Karlsruher SC
24	Shots	4
5	Shots on target	1
14	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
2	Corners	3
3	Offsides	4
53%	Possession	47%
481	Passes	430
387	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Schalke 04 1.99 · Karlsruher SC 1.05. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots FC Schalke 04 24 · Karlsruher SC 4; on target 5 and 1.

Referee

R. Hempel→

5.10

yellows per match

0.35

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 63.2%: “FC Schalke 04 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.12 for FC Schalke 04, 1.01 for Karlsruher SC.
The highest double chance value is 84.5% (1X — FC Schalke 04 win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,165 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Schalke 04 to win63.2%

Draw21.3%

Karlsruher SC to win15.5%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	8

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — FC Schalke 04 win or draw84.5%

12 — any result other than a draw78.7%

X2 — draw or Karlsruher SC win36.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (21.3%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

FC Schalke 04 lead at half-time45.4%

Level at half-time39.0%

Karlsruher SC lead at half-time15.6%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Schalke 04 ahead or level84.4%

12 — not level at half-time61.0%

X2 — level or Karlsruher SC ahead54.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1165 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Schalke 04: at least 10Actual: 13
Karlsruher SC: at least 11Actual: 8

Corners

FC Schalke 04: at least 5Actual: 2
Karlsruher SC: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals61.4%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 59.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Schalke 04 score1.99

Attack: FC Schalke 04 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Karlsruher SC concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.99 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Karlsruher SC score1.05

Attack: Karlsruher SC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Schalke 04 concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–111.0%1–110.5%2–010.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1165 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 95 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.