2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 28

1. FC Kaiserslautern–Fortuna Düsseldorf

3–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 April 2026 at 11:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Fritz Walter Stadion, Kaiserslautern

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 36%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

22'Fortuna DüsseldorfS. Suso · red card
62'1. FC KaiserslauternJ. Rasmussen (assist: M. Ritter)
76'1. FC KaiserslauternS. Şahin (assist: M. Berisha)
90'1. FC KaiserslauternD. Hanslik (assist: S. Şahin)

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Kaiserslautern		Fortuna Düsseldorf
23	Shots	9
9	Shots on target	0
15	Shots inside the box	5
0	Goalkeeper saves	6
9	Corners	6
1	Offsides	2
64%	Possession	36%
534	Passes	305
458	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.79 · Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.32. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots 1. FC Kaiserslautern 23 · Fortuna Düsseldorf 9; on target 9 and 0.
1. FC Kaiserslautern kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

D. Schlager→

4.73

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.6%: “Fortuna Düsseldorf to win”. Second comes “1. FC Kaiserslautern to win” at 36.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.59 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern, 1.65 for Fortuna Düsseldorf.
The highest double chance value is 74.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,161 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Kaiserslautern to win36.2%

Draw25.2%

Fortuna Düsseldorf to win38.6%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,563 of 4,188 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	6

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

1. FC Kaiserslautern lead at half-time37.3%

Level at half-time41.7%

Fortuna Düsseldorf lead at half-time21.0%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Kaiserslautern ahead or level79.0%

12 — not level at half-time58.3%

X2 — level or Fortuna Düsseldorf ahead62.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1161 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Kaiserslautern: at least 10Actual: 10
Fortuna Düsseldorf: at least 12Actual: 6

Corners

1. FC Kaiserslautern: at least 4Actual: 9
Fortuna Düsseldorf: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Kaiserslautern score1.79

Attack: 1. FC Kaiserslautern score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.79 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fortuna Düsseldorf score1.32

Attack: Fortuna Düsseldorf score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Kaiserslautern's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.32 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.6%1–29.2%2–18.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.