2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 28

1. FC Magdeburg–VfL Bochum

4–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 April 2026 at 11:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'1. FC MagdeburgL. Musonda (assist: H. Bockhorn)
44'1. FC MagdeburgB. Atik (assist: M. Mathisen)
56'VfL BochumP. Hofmann (assist: K. Miyoshi)
71'1. FC MagdeburgM. Żukowski (assist: B. Atik)
73'1. FC MagdeburgM. Żukowski (assist: R. Tachie)

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Magdeburg		VfL Bochum
12	Shots	18
6	Shots on target	6
10	Shots inside the box	14
5	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	3
1	Offsides	0
53%	Possession	47%
485	Passes	418
420	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Magdeburg 1.79 · VfL Bochum 1.47. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots 1. FC Magdeburg 12 · VfL Bochum 18; on target 6 and 6.

Referee

F. Prigan→

5.37

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.1%: “1. FC Magdeburg to win”. Second comes “VfL Bochum to win” at 29.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.75 for 1. FC Magdeburg, 1.41 for VfL Bochum.
The highest double chance value is 74.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,161 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Magdeburg to win45.1%

Draw25.1%

VfL Bochum to win29.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

1. FC Magdeburg lead at half-time26.8%

Level at half-time39.9%

VfL Bochum lead at half-time33.3%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Magdeburg ahead or level66.7%

12 — not level at half-time60.1%

X2 — level or VfL Bochum ahead73.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1161 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Magdeburg: at least 10Actual: 9
VfL Bochum: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

1. FC Magdeburg: at least 5Actual: 4
VfL Bochum: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Magdeburg score1.79

Attack: 1. FC Magdeburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: VfL Bochum's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.79 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals VfL Bochum score1.47

Attack: VfL Bochum score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Magdeburg's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.8%2–110.1%1–27.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.