2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 27

VfL Bochum–Holstein Kiel

2–3

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 22 March 2026 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Bochum

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 23%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'Holstein KielKasper Davidsen (assist: S. Skrzybski)
14'VfL BochumP. Hofmann
45'Holstein KielP. Harres (assist: A. Kaprálik)
58'VfL BochumM. Bero · red card
66'VfL BochumP. Hofmann (assist: M. Wittek)
70'Holstein KielJ. Therkelsen

Match statistics

Match statistics
VfL Bochum		Holstein Kiel
20	Shots	10
10	Shots on target	4
15	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	8
2	Corners	3
2	Offsides	1
47%	Possession	53%
352	Passes	414
263	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: VfL Bochum 1.91 · Holstein Kiel 1.14. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots VfL Bochum 20 · Holstein Kiel 10; on target 10 and 4.

Referee

P. Alt→

5.37

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.3%: “VfL Bochum to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.83 for VfL Bochum, 1.18 for Holstein Kiel.
The highest double chance value is 76.9% (1X — VfL Bochum win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,158 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

VfL Bochum to win52.3%

Draw24.6%

Holstein Kiel to win23.1%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	22

4	Yellow cards	5

1	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–2

VfL Bochum lead at half-time39.0%

Level at half-time40.3%

Holstein Kiel lead at half-time20.7%

First-half double chance

1X — VfL Bochum ahead or level79.3%

12 — not level at half-time59.7%

X2 — level or Holstein Kiel ahead61.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1158 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

VfL Bochum: at least 13Actual: 11
Holstein Kiel: at least 11Actual: 22

Corners

VfL Bochum: at least 5Actual: 2
Holstein Kiel: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals VfL Bochum score1.91

Attack: VfL Bochum score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Holstein Kiel's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.91 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Holstein Kiel score1.14

Attack: Holstein Kiel score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: VfL Bochum's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.0%2–110.8%2–08.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.