2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 27

Fortuna Düsseldorf–Hertha BSC

2–5

HT 1–4

Kick-off: Sunday, 22 March 2026 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 34%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'Fortuna DüsseldorfL. Gechter (own goal)
18'Hertha BSCF. Reese (assist: J. Brekalo)
26'Hertha BSCF. Reese (assist: Marten Winkler)
44'Hertha BSCD. Kownacki (assist: F. Reese)
45'Hertha BSCMarten Winkler (assist: D. Kownacki)
54'Fortuna DüsseldorfC. Itten

Match statistics

Match statistics
Fortuna Düsseldorf		Hertha BSC
16	Shots	12
5	Shots on target	9
10	Shots inside the box	10
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	1
2	Offsides	3
59%	Possession	41%
530	Passes	383
456	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.47 · Hertha BSC 1.32. On the pitch: 2-5.
Shots Fortuna Düsseldorf 16 · Hertha BSC 12; on target 5 and 9.
Fortuna Düsseldorf kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

E. Weisbach→

4.60

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.2%: “Fortuna Düsseldorf to win”. Second comes “Hertha BSC to win” at 33.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.57 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, 1.43 for Hertha BSC.
The highest double chance value is 73.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,158 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Fortuna Düsseldorf to win40.2%

Draw26.2%

Hertha BSC to win33.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	7

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–4

Fortuna Düsseldorf lead at half-time30.1%

Level at half-time44.3%

Hertha BSC lead at half-time25.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Fortuna Düsseldorf ahead or level74.4%

12 — not level at half-time55.7%

X2 — level or Hertha BSC ahead69.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1158 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Fortuna Düsseldorf: at least 10Actual: 12
Hertha BSC: at least 11Actual: 7

Corners

Fortuna Düsseldorf: at least 4Actual: 6
Hertha BSC: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Fortuna Düsseldorf score1.47

Attack: Fortuna Düsseldorf score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hertha BSC's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hertha BSC score1.32

Attack: Hertha BSC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.32 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%2–19.6%1–28.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.