2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 27

SV Darmstadt 98–FC Schalke 04

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 March 2026 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor, Darmstadt

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

44'FC Schalke 04M. Sylla
45'SV Darmstadt 98I. Lidberg (assist: P. Pfeiffer)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SV Darmstadt 98		FC Schalke 04
10	Shots	16
4	Shots on target	7
8	Shots inside the box	11
6	Goalkeeper saves	3
11	Corners	5
2	Offsides	1
61%	Possession	39%
443	Passes	282
336	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SV Darmstadt 98 1.58 · FC Schalke 04 1.22. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots SV Darmstadt 98 10 · FC Schalke 04 16; on target 4 and 7.
SV Darmstadt 98 kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

R. Hartmann→

3.57

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.2%: “SV Darmstadt 98 to win”. Second comes “FC Schalke 04 to win” at 35.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.40 for SV Darmstadt 98, 1.35 for FC Schalke 04.
The highest double chance value is 72.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,157 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SV Darmstadt 98 to win37.2%

Draw27.6%

FC Schalke 04 to win35.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	16

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

SV Darmstadt 98 lead at half-time25.3%

Level at half-time42.4%

FC Schalke 04 lead at half-time32.2%

First-half double chance

1X — SV Darmstadt 98 ahead or level67.8%

12 — not level at half-time57.6%

X2 — level or FC Schalke 04 ahead74.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1157 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SV Darmstadt 98: at least 10Actual: 15
FC Schalke 04: at least 11Actual: 16

Corners

SV Darmstadt 98: at least 4Actual: 11
FC Schalke 04: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SV Darmstadt 98 score1.58

Attack: SV Darmstadt 98 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Schalke 04 concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Schalke 04 score1.22

Attack: FC Schalke 04 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SV Darmstadt 98's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%2–19.2%1–28.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.