2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 27

SV Elversberg–Arminia Bielefeld

3–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 March 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Waldstadion Kaiserlinde, Spiesen-Elversberg

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

38'SV ElversbergL. Petkov (assist: L. Schnellbacher)
51'Arminia BielefeldM. Mehlem · red card
69'SV ElversbergL. Petkov (assist: J. Gyamerah)
76'SV ElversbergA. Condé (assist: T. Zimmerschied)
84'Arminia BielefeldC. Lannert (assist: S. Russo)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SV Elversberg		Arminia Bielefeld
28	Shots	4
10	Shots on target	2
18	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	6
9	Corners	1
1	Offsides	1
58%	Possession	42%
447	Passes	333
380	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SV Elversberg 1.79 · Arminia Bielefeld 1.05. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots SV Elversberg 28 · Arminia Bielefeld 4; on target 10 and 2.
SV Elversberg kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

F. Bickel→

5.25

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.5%: “SV Elversberg to win”. Second comes “Arminia Bielefeld to win” at 26.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.76 for SV Elversberg, 1.26 for Arminia Bielefeld.
The highest double chance value is 74.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,154 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SV Elversberg to win48.5%

Draw25.3%

Arminia Bielefeld to win26.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	7

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

SV Elversberg lead at half-time36.2%

Level at half-time42.7%

Arminia Bielefeld lead at half-time21.0%

First-half double chance

1X — SV Elversberg ahead or level79.0%

12 — not level at half-time57.3%

X2 — level or Arminia Bielefeld ahead63.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1154 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SV Elversberg: at least 10Actual: 7
Arminia Bielefeld: at least 13Actual: 7

Corners

SV Elversberg: at least 5Actual: 9
Arminia Bielefeld: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SV Elversberg score1.79

Attack: SV Elversberg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Arminia Bielefeld's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.79 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Arminia Bielefeld score1.05

Attack: Arminia Bielefeld score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SV Elversberg concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.3%2–110.5%1–07.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.