2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 27

SC Paderborn 07–Dynamo Dresden

2–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 March 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

32'Dynamo DresdenV. Vermeij (assist: J. Sterner)
66'SC Paderborn 07S. Tigges (assist: F. Gotze)
85'SC Paderborn 07S. Tigges

Match statistics

Match statistics
SC Paderborn 07		Dynamo Dresden
22	Shots	16
4	Shots on target	8
14	Shots inside the box	10
8	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	5
1	Offsides	1
53%	Possession	47%
463	Passes	419
389	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SC Paderborn 07 2.00 · Dynamo Dresden 1.04. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots SC Paderborn 07 22 · Dynamo Dresden 16; on target 4 and 8.

Referee

K. Oldhafer→

4.40

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.5%: “SC Paderborn 07 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.83 for SC Paderborn 07, 1.13 for Dynamo Dresden.
The highest double chance value is 78.1% (1X — SC Paderborn 07 win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,154 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SC Paderborn 07 to win53.5%

Draw24.6%

Dynamo Dresden to win21.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	8

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

SC Paderborn 07 lead at half-time24.3%

Level at half-time39.1%

Dynamo Dresden lead at half-time36.6%

First-half double chance

1X — SC Paderborn 07 ahead or level63.4%

12 — not level at half-time60.9%

X2 — level or Dynamo Dresden ahead75.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1154 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SC Paderborn 07: at least 12Actual: 8
Dynamo Dresden: at least 10Actual: 8

Corners

SC Paderborn 07: at least 6Actual: 4
Dynamo Dresden: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SC Paderborn 07 score2.00

Attack: SC Paderborn 07 score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: Dynamo Dresden's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.00 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Dynamo Dresden score1.04

Attack: Dynamo Dresden score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SC Paderborn 07 concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.2%2–110.8%2–08.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.