2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 27

1. FC Nürnberg–1. FC Kaiserslautern

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 March 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

2'1. FC NürnbergL. Lochoshvili (assist: J. Justvan)
58'1. FC NürnbergA. Marhiev (penalty)
83'1. FC NürnbergL. Lochoshvili

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Nürnberg		1. FC Kaiserslautern
21	Shots	6
5	Shots on target	2
16	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
11	Corners	1
1	Offsides	2
48%	Possession	52%
334	Passes	382
263	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Nürnberg 1.63 · 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.51. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots 1. FC Nürnberg 21 · 1. FC Kaiserslautern 6; on target 5 and 2.

Referee

F. Wagner→

4.75

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.7%: “1. FC Nürnberg to win”. Second comes “1. FC Kaiserslautern to win” at 29.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.69 for 1. FC Nürnberg, 1.36 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern.
The highest double chance value is 74.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,154 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Nürnberg to win44.7%

Draw25.7%

1. FC Kaiserslautern to win29.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

1. FC Nürnberg lead at half-time31.1%

Level at half-time40.3%

1. FC Kaiserslautern lead at half-time28.6%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Nürnberg ahead or level71.4%

12 — not level at half-time59.7%

X2 — level or 1. FC Kaiserslautern ahead68.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1154 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Nürnberg: at least 12Actual: 10
1. FC Kaiserslautern: at least 12Actual: 14

Corners

1. FC Nürnberg: at least 4Actual: 11
1. FC Kaiserslautern: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Nürnberg score1.63

Attack: 1. FC Nürnberg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Kaiserslautern's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.63 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals 1. FC Kaiserslautern score1.51

Attack: 1. FC Kaiserslautern score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Nürnberg's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.4%2–110.1%1–28.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.