2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 27

Hannover 96–Eintracht Braunschweig

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 20 March 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Heinz-von-Heiden-Arena, Hannover

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

30'Hannover 96M. Nawrocki (assist: S. Þórðarson)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hannover 96		Eintracht Braunschweig
10	Shots	16
3	Shots on target	4
8	Shots inside the box	9
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
10	Corners	6
0	Offsides	1
50%	Possession	50%
416	Passes	421
323	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hannover 96 1.99 · Eintracht Braunschweig 0.90. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Hannover 96 10 · Eintracht Braunschweig 16; on target 3 and 4.

Referee

F. Exner→

4.55

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 60.6%: “Hannover 96 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.97 for Hannover 96, 0.98 for Eintracht Braunschweig.
The highest double chance value is 83.3% (1X — Hannover 96 win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,152 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hannover 96 to win60.6%

Draw22.8%

Eintracht Braunschweig to win16.7%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	15

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Hannover 96 lead at half-time42.3%

Level at half-time40.2%

Eintracht Braunschweig lead at half-time17.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Hannover 96 ahead or level82.5%

12 — not level at half-time59.8%

X2 — level or Eintracht Braunschweig ahead57.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1152 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hannover 96: at least 11Actual: 13
Eintracht Braunschweig: at least 12Actual: 15

Corners

Hannover 96: at least 6Actual: 10
Eintracht Braunschweig: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hannover 96 score1.99

Attack: Hannover 96 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Eintracht Braunschweig's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.99 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Eintracht Braunschweig score0.90

Attack: Eintracht Braunschweig score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hannover 96 concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.90 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.4%2–111.0%2–010.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.