2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 26

1. FC Kaiserslautern–Karlsruher SC

3–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 15 March 2026 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Fritz Walter Stadion, Kaiserslautern

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'1. FC KaiserslauternS. Şahin (assist: N. Skytta)
14'1. FC KaiserslauternM. Berisha
90'1. FC KaiserslauternMahir Emreli (assist: Norman Bassette)

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Kaiserslautern		Karlsruher SC
18	Shots	13
8	Shots on target	2
14	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
5	Corners	2
1	Offsides	1
45%	Possession	55%
395	Passes	485
302	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2.02 · Karlsruher SC 1.36. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots 1. FC Kaiserslautern 18 · Karlsruher SC 13; on target 8 and 2.
Karlsruher SC kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

T. Stieler→

3.72

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.9%: “1. FC Kaiserslautern to win”. Second comes “Karlsruher SC to win” at 28.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.77 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern, 1.35 for Karlsruher SC.
The highest double chance value is 74.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,149 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Kaiserslautern to win46.9%

Draw25.1%

Karlsruher SC to win28.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

1. FC Kaiserslautern lead at half-time40.0%

Level at half-time39.0%

Karlsruher SC lead at half-time21.0%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Kaiserslautern ahead or level79.0%

12 — not level at half-time61.0%

X2 — level or Karlsruher SC ahead60.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1149 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Kaiserslautern: at least 10Actual: 8
Karlsruher SC: at least 12Actual: 14

Corners

1. FC Kaiserslautern: at least 4Actual: 5
Karlsruher SC: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Kaiserslautern score2.02

Attack: 1. FC Kaiserslautern score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Karlsruher SC concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.02 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Karlsruher SC score1.36

Attack: Karlsruher SC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Kaiserslautern's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.36 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.0%2–110.3%1–27.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.