2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 26

Dynamo Dresden–Preußen Münster

6–0

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 15 March 2026 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion, Dresden

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

14'Dynamo DresdenB. Bobzien (assist: N. Hauptmann)
18'Dynamo DresdenB. Bobzien (assist: N. Hauptmann)
31'Dynamo DresdenN. Hauptmann (assist: A. Rossipal)
57'Dynamo DresdenN. Hauptmann (assist: V. Vermeij)
59'Dynamo DresdenV. Vermeij
74'Dynamo DresdenJ. Çeka

Match statistics

Match statistics
Dynamo Dresden		Preußen Münster
18	Shots	13
8	Shots on target	3
12	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
5	Corners	4
0	Offsides	0
45%	Possession	55%
456	Passes	567
374	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Dynamo Dresden 1.65 · Preußen Münster 1.22. On the pitch: 6-0.
Shots Dynamo Dresden 18 · Preußen Münster 13; on target 8 and 3.
Preußen Münster kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

J. Wienefeld→

4.75

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.0%: “Dynamo Dresden to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.48 for Dynamo Dresden, 1.11 for Preußen Münster.
The highest double chance value is 72.9% (1X — Dynamo Dresden win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,149 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Dynamo Dresden to win45.0%

Draw27.9%

Preußen Münster to win27.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

5	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–0

Dynamo Dresden lead at half-time46.5%

Level at half-time38.2%

Preußen Münster lead at half-time15.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Dynamo Dresden ahead or level84.7%

12 — not level at half-time61.8%

X2 — level or Preußen Münster ahead53.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1149 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Dynamo Dresden: at least 11Actual: 5
Preußen Münster: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

Dynamo Dresden: at least 5Actual: 5
Preußen Münster: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Dynamo Dresden score1.65

Attack: Dynamo Dresden score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Preußen Münster's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.65 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Preußen Münster score1.22

Attack: Preußen Münster score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Dynamo Dresden's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%1–010.3%2–110.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.