2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 26

Hertha BSC–VfL Bochum

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 14 March 2026 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'Hertha BSCD. Kownacki (penalty)
90'VfL BochumL. Morgalla

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hertha BSC		VfL Bochum
11	Shots	8
2	Shots on target	2
7	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
5	Corners	6
1	Offsides	3
48%	Possession	52%
445	Passes	481
358	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hertha BSC 1.59 · VfL Bochum 1.42. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Hertha BSC 11 · VfL Bochum 8; on target 2 and 2.

Referee

M. Bacher→

5.12

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.8%: “Hertha BSC to win”. Second comes “VfL Bochum to win” at 29.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.59 for Hertha BSC, 1.28 for VfL Bochum.
The highest double chance value is 73.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,148 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hertha BSC to win43.8%

Draw26.6%

VfL Bochum to win29.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Hertha BSC lead at half-time25.9%

Level at half-time41.0%

VfL Bochum lead at half-time33.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Hertha BSC ahead or level66.9%

12 — not level at half-time59.0%

X2 — level or VfL Bochum ahead74.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1148 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hertha BSC: at least 10Actual: 12
VfL Bochum: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

Hertha BSC: at least 5Actual: 5
VfL Bochum: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hertha BSC score1.59

Attack: Hertha BSC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: VfL Bochum's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.59 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals VfL Bochum score1.42

Attack: VfL Bochum score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hertha BSC's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.42 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%2–110.1%1–08.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.