2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 26

Eintracht Braunschweig–Fortuna Düsseldorf

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 14 March 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Eintracht-Stadion, Braunschweig

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 32%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

62'Eintracht BraunschweigR. Heusser

Match statistics

Match statistics
Eintracht Braunschweig		Fortuna Düsseldorf
16	Shots	9
5	Shots on target	2
12	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	5
4	Offsides	2
51%	Possession	49%
399	Passes	385
332	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Eintracht Braunschweig 1.28 · Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.44. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Eintracht Braunschweig 16 · Fortuna Düsseldorf 9; on target 5 and 2.

Referee

F. Lechner→

4.41

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.7%: “Fortuna Düsseldorf to win”. Second comes “Eintracht Braunschweig to win” at 31.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.27 for Eintracht Braunschweig, 1.46 for Fortuna Düsseldorf.
The highest double chance value is 72.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,145 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Eintracht Braunschweig to win31.7%

Draw27.6%

Fortuna Düsseldorf to win40.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Eintracht Braunschweig lead at half-time26.2%

Level at half-time43.9%

Fortuna Düsseldorf lead at half-time29.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Eintracht Braunschweig ahead or level70.1%

12 — not level at half-time56.1%

X2 — level or Fortuna Düsseldorf ahead73.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1145 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Eintracht Braunschweig: at least 11Actual: 10
Fortuna Düsseldorf: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

Eintracht Braunschweig: at least 4Actual: 4
Fortuna Düsseldorf: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Eintracht Braunschweig score1.28

Attack: Eintracht Braunschweig score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fortuna Düsseldorf score1.44

Attack: Fortuna Düsseldorf score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Eintracht Braunschweig's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.44 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%1–29.7%0–18.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.