2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 26

1. FC Magdeburg–SV Darmstadt 98

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 13 March 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 25%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

62'1. FC MagdeburgF. Nurnberger (own goal)
67'SV Darmstadt 98F. Nurnberger (assist: M. Papela)

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Magdeburg		SV Darmstadt 98
17	Shots	10
4	Shots on target	3
10	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
8	Corners	1
4	Offsides	2
57%	Possession	43%
491	Passes	372
397	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Magdeburg 1.59 · SV Darmstadt 98 1.67. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots 1. FC Magdeburg 17 · SV Darmstadt 98 10; on target 4 and 3.
1. FC Magdeburg kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

M. Jollenbeck→

4.50

yellows per match

1.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.0%: “1. FC Magdeburg to win”. Second comes “SV Darmstadt 98 to win” at 34.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.76 for 1. FC Magdeburg, 1.61 for SV Darmstadt 98.
The highest double chance value is 75.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,143 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Magdeburg to win41.0%

Draw24.6%

SV Darmstadt 98 to win34.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	10

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

1. FC Magdeburg lead at half-time26.2%

Level at half-time39.1%

SV Darmstadt 98 lead at half-time34.6%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Magdeburg ahead or level65.4%

12 — not level at half-time60.9%

X2 — level or SV Darmstadt 98 ahead73.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1143 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Magdeburg: at least 11Actual: 6
SV Darmstadt 98: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

1. FC Magdeburg: at least 5Actual: 8
SV Darmstadt 98: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Magdeburg score1.59

Attack: 1. FC Magdeburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SV Darmstadt 98's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.59 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SV Darmstadt 98 score1.67

Attack: SV Darmstadt 98 score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Magdeburg's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.67 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.0%2–19.4%1–28.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.