2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 26

SpVgg Greuther Fürth–SV Elversberg

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 13 March 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Fürth

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 21%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

42'SpVgg Greuther FürthB. Hrgota
90'SpVgg Greuther FürthLukas Reich (assist: N. Futkeu)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SpVgg Greuther Fürth		SV Elversberg
8	Shots	13
4	Shots on target	4
3	Shots inside the box	10
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	6
1	Offsides	6
43%	Possession	57%
302	Passes	390
241	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.12 · SV Elversberg 1.84. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots SpVgg Greuther Fürth 8 · SV Elversberg 13; on target 4 and 4.
SV Elversberg kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

F. Prigan→

5.50

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.8%: “SV Elversberg to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.15 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 1.94 for SV Elversberg.
The highest double chance value is 79.3% (X2 — draw or SV Elversberg win).
These values were computed from 1,143 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win20.7%

Draw23.5%

SV Elversberg to win55.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

SpVgg Greuther Fürth lead at half-time16.6%

Level at half-time39.0%

SV Elversberg lead at half-time44.4%

First-half double chance

1X — SpVgg Greuther Fürth ahead or level55.6%

12 — not level at half-time61.0%

X2 — level or SV Elversberg ahead83.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1143 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SpVgg Greuther Fürth: at least 11Actual: 13
SV Elversberg: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

SpVgg Greuther Fürth: at least 4Actual: 2
SV Elversberg: at least 5Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SpVgg Greuther Fürth score1.12

Attack: SpVgg Greuther Fürth score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: SV Elversberg concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SV Elversberg score1.84

Attack: SV Elversberg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SpVgg Greuther Fürth concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.84 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.5%1–210.9%0–28.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.