2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 25

Preußen Münster–Hertha BSC

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 8 March 2026 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'Hertha BSCF. Reese (penalty)
46'Preußen MünsterJ. Heuer (assist: O. Batista Meier)
90'Hertha BSCMarten Winkler (assist: L. Schuler)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Preußen Münster		Hertha BSC
11	Shots	15
4	Shots on target	5
9	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	8
1	Offsides	4
41%	Possession	59%
305	Passes	436
222	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Preußen Münster 1.39 · Hertha BSC 1.42. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Preußen Münster 11 · Hertha BSC 15; on target 4 and 5.
Hertha BSC kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

F. Bickel→

5.67

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.2%: “Hertha BSC to win”. Second comes “Preußen Münster to win” at 32.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.35 for Preußen Münster, 1.50 for Hertha BSC.
The highest double chance value is 73.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,140 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Preußen Münster to win32.9%

Draw27.0%

Hertha BSC to win40.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Preußen Münster lead at half-time27.7%

Level at half-time42.7%

Hertha BSC lead at half-time29.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Preußen Münster ahead or level70.4%

12 — not level at half-time57.3%

X2 — level or Hertha BSC ahead72.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1140 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Preußen Münster: at least 11Actual: 10
Hertha BSC: at least 12Actual: 9

Corners

Preußen Münster: at least 4Actual: 4
Hertha BSC: at least 4Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Preußen Münster score1.39

Attack: Preußen Münster score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hertha BSC's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hertha BSC score1.42

Attack: Hertha BSC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Preußen Münster's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.42 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%1–29.6%2–18.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.