2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 25

Karlsruher SC–Dynamo Dresden

3–3

HT 1–3

Kick-off: Sunday, 8 March 2026 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: BBBank Wildpark, Karlsruhe

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'Dynamo DresdenN. Hauptmann (assist: A. Rossipal)
23'Karlsruher SCM. Wanitzek (penalty)
28'Dynamo DresdenB. Bobzien (assist: J. Çeka)
44'Dynamo DresdenN. Hauptmann (assist: V. Vermeij)
68'Karlsruher SCLouey Ben Farhat (assist: R. Šimić)
90'Karlsruher SC

Match statistics

Match statistics
Karlsruher SC		Dynamo Dresden
22	Shots	12
6	Shots on target	6
18	Shots inside the box	10
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	5
2	Offsides	2
49%	Possession	51%
473	Passes	501
397	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Karlsruher SC 1.60 · Dynamo Dresden 1.44. On the pitch: 3-3.
Shots Karlsruher SC 22 · Dynamo Dresden 12; on target 6 and 6.

Referee

F. Badstubner→

5.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.7%: “Dynamo Dresden to win”. Second comes “Karlsruher SC to win” at 32.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.36 for Karlsruher SC, 1.53 for Dynamo Dresden.
The highest double chance value is 73.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,140 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Karlsruher SC to win32.5%

Draw26.7%

Dynamo Dresden to win40.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–3

Karlsruher SC lead at half-time24.5%

Level at half-time39.4%

Dynamo Dresden lead at half-time36.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Karlsruher SC ahead or level63.9%

12 — not level at half-time60.6%

X2 — level or Dynamo Dresden ahead75.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1140 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Karlsruher SC: at least 11Actual: 10
Dynamo Dresden: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Karlsruher SC: at least 5Actual: 7
Dynamo Dresden: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Karlsruher SC score1.60

Attack: Karlsruher SC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Dynamo Dresden's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.60 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Dynamo Dresden score1.44

Attack: Dynamo Dresden score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Karlsruher SC concede 19% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.44 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%1–29.7%2–18.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.