2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 25

SC Paderborn 07–Eintracht Braunschweig

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 7 March 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 22%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

52'Eintracht BraunschweigR. Heusser (assist: J. Gomez)
67'Eintracht BraunschweigSalomon Patrick Amougou Nkoa · red card
90'SC Paderborn 07S. Michel (assist: S. Tigges)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SC Paderborn 07		Eintracht Braunschweig
18	Shots	6
5	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	2
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
9	Corners	5
0	Offsides	1
68%	Possession	32%
523	Passes	254
423	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SC Paderborn 07 2.18 · Eintracht Braunschweig 0.79. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots SC Paderborn 07 18 · Eintracht Braunschweig 6; on target 5 and 3.
SC Paderborn 07 kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

L. Benen→

4.93

yellows per match

0.40

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 60.8%: “SC Paderborn 07 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.01 for SC Paderborn 07, 1.01 for Eintracht Braunschweig.
The highest double chance value is 83.2% (1X — SC Paderborn 07 win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,136 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SC Paderborn 07 to win60.8%

Draw22.4%

Eintracht Braunschweig to win16.8%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	18

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

SC Paderborn 07 lead at half-time39.4%

Level at half-time39.6%

Eintracht Braunschweig lead at half-time21.0%

First-half double chance

1X — SC Paderborn 07 ahead or level79.0%

12 — not level at half-time60.4%

X2 — level or Eintracht Braunschweig ahead60.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1136 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SC Paderborn 07: at least 11Actual: 9
Eintracht Braunschweig: at least 10Actual: 18

Corners

SC Paderborn 07: at least 5Actual: 9
Eintracht Braunschweig: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SC Paderborn 07 score2.18

Attack: SC Paderborn 07 score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: Eintracht Braunschweig's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.18 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Eintracht Braunschweig score0.79

Attack: Eintracht Braunschweig score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: SC Paderborn 07 concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.79 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.1%2–111.0%2–010.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.