2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 25

1. FC Nürnberg–Fortuna Düsseldorf

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 7 March 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 33%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

53'Fortuna DüsseldorfS. Appelkamp

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Nürnberg		Fortuna Düsseldorf
9	Shots	17
2	Shots on target	7
3	Shots inside the box	13
6	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	5
0	Offsides	3
52%	Possession	48%
454	Passes	415
377	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Nürnberg 1.57 · Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.25. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots 1. FC Nürnberg 9 · Fortuna Düsseldorf 17; on target 2 and 7.

Referee

T. Gansloweit→

4.90

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.0%: “1. FC Nürnberg to win”. Second comes “Fortuna Düsseldorf to win” at 33.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.50 for 1. FC Nürnberg, 1.35 for Fortuna Düsseldorf.
The highest double chance value is 73.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,136 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Nürnberg to win40.0%

Draw27.0%

Fortuna Düsseldorf to win33.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	9

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

1. FC Nürnberg lead at half-time31.5%

Level at half-time44.2%

Fortuna Düsseldorf lead at half-time24.3%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Nürnberg ahead or level75.7%

12 — not level at half-time55.8%

X2 — level or Fortuna Düsseldorf ahead68.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1136 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Nürnberg: at least 10Actual: 10
Fortuna Düsseldorf: at least 12Actual: 9

Corners

1. FC Nürnberg: at least 4Actual: 3
Fortuna Düsseldorf: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Nürnberg score1.57

Attack: 1. FC Nürnberg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.57 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fortuna Düsseldorf score1.25

Attack: Fortuna Düsseldorf score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Nürnberg's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%2–19.6%1–28.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.