2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 25

FC Schalke 04–Arminia Bielefeld

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 6 March 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: VELTINS-Arena, Gelsenkirchen

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'FC Schalke 04E. Džeko

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Schalke 04		Arminia Bielefeld
24	Shots	12
8	Shots on target	3
20	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	7
9	Corners	2
1	Offsides	2
45%	Possession	55%
278	Passes	348
160	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Schalke 04 1.62 · Arminia Bielefeld 1.05. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots FC Schalke 04 24 · Arminia Bielefeld 12; on target 8 and 3.
Arminia Bielefeld kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

T. Reichel→

4.04

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.4%: “FC Schalke 04 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.65 for FC Schalke 04, 1.07 for Arminia Bielefeld.
The highest double chance value is 76.7% (1X — FC Schalke 04 win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,134 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Schalke 04 to win50.4%

Draw26.3%

Arminia Bielefeld to win23.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	13

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

FC Schalke 04 lead at half-time33.8%

Level at half-time43.1%

Arminia Bielefeld lead at half-time23.2%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Schalke 04 ahead or level76.8%

12 — not level at half-time56.9%

X2 — level or Arminia Bielefeld ahead66.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1134 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Schalke 04: at least 12Actual: 7
Arminia Bielefeld: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

FC Schalke 04: at least 4Actual: 9
Arminia Bielefeld: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Schalke 04 score1.62

Attack: FC Schalke 04 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Arminia Bielefeld's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.62 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Arminia Bielefeld score1.05

Attack: Arminia Bielefeld score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Schalke 04 concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.3%2–110.6%1–010.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.