2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 24

Eintracht Braunschweig–Preußen Münster

1–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 1 March 2026 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Eintracht-Stadion, Braunschweig

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 34%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

56'Eintracht BraunschweigL. Frenkert (assist: K. Ehlers)
71'Preußen MünsterJ. Hendrix (assist: J. ter Horst)
74'Preußen MünsterO. Batista Meier
88'Preußen MünsterP. Jaeckel · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Eintracht Braunschweig		Preußen Münster
11	Shots	8
3	Shots on target	3
7	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
7	Corners	0
3	Offsides	1
45%	Possession	55%
373	Passes	486
259	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Eintracht Braunschweig 1.40 · Preußen Münster 1.34. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Eintracht Braunschweig 11 · Preußen Münster 8; on target 3 and 3.
Preußen Münster kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

D. Siebert→

4.60

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.6%: “Eintracht Braunschweig to win”. Second comes “Preußen Münster to win” at 34.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.36 for Eintracht Braunschweig, 1.29 for Preußen Münster.
The highest double chance value is 71.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,131 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Eintracht Braunschweig to win37.6%

Draw28.2%

Preußen Münster to win34.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

Eintracht Braunschweig lead at half-time32.7%

Level at half-time41.4%

Preußen Münster lead at half-time25.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Eintracht Braunschweig ahead or level74.1%

12 — not level at half-time58.6%

X2 — level or Preußen Münster ahead67.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1131 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Eintracht Braunschweig: at least 11Actual: 8
Preußen Münster: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Eintracht Braunschweig: at least 5
Preußen Münster: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Eintracht Braunschweig score1.40

Attack: Eintracht Braunschweig score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Preußen Münster's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Preußen Münster score1.34

Attack: Preußen Münster score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Eintracht Braunschweig's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%2–19.2%1–08.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.