2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 24

Hertha BSC–1. FC Nürnberg

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 1 March 2026 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

20'Hertha BSCJ. Brekalo (assist: J. Dudziak)
45'1. FC NürnbergT. Baack (assist: J. von der Hitz)
88'Hertha BSCJ. Brekalo

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hertha BSC		1. FC Nürnberg
14	Shots	5
5	Shots on target	1
11	Shots inside the box	3
0	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	6
2	Offsides	0
55%	Possession	45%
449	Passes	365
376	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hertha BSC 1.64 · 1. FC Nürnberg 1.29. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Hertha BSC 14 · 1. FC Nürnberg 5; on target 5 and 1.
Hertha BSC kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

P. Alt→

5.45

yellows per match

0.28

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.8%: “Hertha BSC to win”. Second comes “1. FC Nürnberg to win” at 30.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.62 for Hertha BSC, 1.32 for 1. FC Nürnberg.
The highest double chance value is 73.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,131 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hertha BSC to win43.8%

Draw26.2%

1. FC Nürnberg to win30.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	13

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Hertha BSC lead at half-time27.0%

Level at half-time41.4%

1. FC Nürnberg lead at half-time31.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Hertha BSC ahead or level68.4%

12 — not level at half-time58.6%

X2 — level or 1. FC Nürnberg ahead73.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1131 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hertha BSC: at least 13Actual: 11
1. FC Nürnberg: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

Hertha BSC: at least 4Actual: 3
1. FC Nürnberg: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hertha BSC score1.64

Attack: Hertha BSC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Nürnberg's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.64 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals 1. FC Nürnberg score1.29

Attack: 1. FC Nürnberg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hertha BSC's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.9%2–110.1%1–28.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.