2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 24

1. FC Kaiserslautern–SC Paderborn 07

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 28 February 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Fritz Walter Stadion, Kaiserslautern

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'SC Paderborn 07C. Brackelmann
90'SC Paderborn 07F. Bilbija (penalty)
90'1. FC KaiserslauternK. Redondo

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Kaiserslautern		SC Paderborn 07
10	Shots	15
2	Shots on target	5
6	Shots inside the box	12
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	2
5	Offsides	0
48%	Possession	52%
405	Passes	452
277	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.41 · SC Paderborn 07 1.67. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots 1. FC Kaiserslautern 10 · SC Paderborn 07 15; on target 2 and 5.

Referee

F. Exner→

4.56

yellows per match

0.28

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.9%: “SC Paderborn 07 to win”. Second comes “1. FC Kaiserslautern to win” at 28.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.28 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern, 1.66 for SC Paderborn 07.
The highest double chance value is 74.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,127 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Kaiserslautern to win28.1%

Draw26.0%

SC Paderborn 07 to win45.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	24

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

1. FC Kaiserslautern lead at half-time34.8%

Level at half-time40.5%

SC Paderborn 07 lead at half-time24.8%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Kaiserslautern ahead or level75.2%

12 — not level at half-time59.5%

X2 — level or SC Paderborn 07 ahead65.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1127 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Kaiserslautern: at least 10Actual: 12
SC Paderborn 07: at least 12Actual: 24

Corners

1. FC Kaiserslautern: at least 4Actual: 3
SC Paderborn 07: at least 5Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Kaiserslautern score1.41

Attack: 1. FC Kaiserslautern score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SC Paderborn 07 concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.41 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SC Paderborn 07 score1.67

Attack: SC Paderborn 07 score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Kaiserslautern's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.67 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.8%1–210.3%0–17.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.