2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 24

Holstein Kiel–SV Elversberg

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 28 February 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Holstein-Stadion, Kiel

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

61'SV ElversbergD. Mokwa (assist: L. Günther)
63'Holstein KielJ. Therkelsen

Match statistics

Match statistics
Holstein Kiel		SV Elversberg
10	Shots	7
3	Shots on target	3
6	Shots inside the box	3
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	7
1	Offsides	2
53%	Possession	47%
391	Passes	347
316	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Holstein Kiel 1.23 · SV Elversberg 1.74. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Holstein Kiel 10 · SV Elversberg 7; on target 3 and 3.

Referee

J. Wienefeld→

5.00

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.4%: “SV Elversberg to win”. Second comes “Holstein Kiel to win” at 29.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.30 for Holstein Kiel, 1.62 for SV Elversberg.
The highest double chance value is 73.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,127 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Holstein Kiel to win29.4%

Draw26.3%

SV Elversberg to win44.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	16

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Holstein Kiel lead at half-time20.4%

Level at half-time40.5%

SV Elversberg lead at half-time39.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Holstein Kiel ahead or level60.8%

12 — not level at half-time59.5%

X2 — level or SV Elversberg ahead79.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1127 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Holstein Kiel: at least 13Actual: 16
SV Elversberg: at least 11Actual: 16

Corners

Holstein Kiel: at least 4Actual: 5
SV Elversberg: at least 5Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Holstein Kiel score1.23

Attack: Holstein Kiel score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SV Elversberg concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SV Elversberg score1.74

Attack: SV Elversberg score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: Holstein Kiel's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.74 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.0%1–210.1%2–17.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.