2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 24

Fortuna Düsseldorf–VfL Bochum

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 27 February 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'Fortuna DüsseldorfC. Itten (assist: E. Iyoha)
57'Fortuna DüsseldorfF. Muslija (assist: C. Rasmussen)
79'VfL BochumFarid Alfa-Ruprecht (assist: O. Olsen)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Fortuna Düsseldorf		VfL Bochum
20	Shots	10
9	Shots on target	3
14	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	7
10	Corners	3
2	Offsides	0
55%	Possession	45%
452	Passes	367
372	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.44 · VfL Bochum 1.47. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Fortuna Düsseldorf 20 · VfL Bochum 10; on target 9 and 3.
Fortuna Düsseldorf kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

R. Hartmann→

3.59

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.4%: “Fortuna Düsseldorf to win”. Second comes “VfL Bochum to win” at 29.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.62 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, 1.30 for VfL Bochum.
The highest double chance value is 73.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,125 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Fortuna Düsseldorf to win44.4%

Draw26.3%

VfL Bochum to win29.3%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Fortuna Düsseldorf lead at half-time23.3%

Level at half-time44.5%

VfL Bochum lead at half-time32.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Fortuna Düsseldorf ahead or level67.7%

12 — not level at half-time55.5%

X2 — level or VfL Bochum ahead76.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1125 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Fortuna Düsseldorf: at least 10Actual: 10
VfL Bochum: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

Fortuna Düsseldorf: at least 5Actual: 10
VfL Bochum: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Fortuna Düsseldorf score1.44

Attack: Fortuna Düsseldorf score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: VfL Bochum's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.44 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals VfL Bochum score1.47

Attack: VfL Bochum score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.0%2–110.1%1–27.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.