2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 23

FC Schalke 04–1. FC Magdeburg

5–3

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 February 2026 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: VELTINS-Arena, Gelsenkirchen

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'FC Schalke 04Jean Hugonet (own goal)
17'1. FC MagdeburgA. Nollenberger (assist: M. Żukowski)
39'FC Schalke 04E. Džeko (assist: A. Aouchiche)
49'FC Schalke 04K. Karaman (penalty)
53'1. FC MagdeburgM. Żukowski
65'FC Schalke 04D. Ljubičić (assist: E. Džeko)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Schalke 04		1. FC Magdeburg
22	Shots	15
13	Shots on target	4
17	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	9
4	Corners	2
0	Offsides	0
48%	Possession	52%
391	Passes	438
280	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Schalke 04 1.70 · 1. FC Magdeburg 1.21. On the pitch: 5-3.
Shots FC Schalke 04 22 · 1. FC Magdeburg 15; on target 13 and 4.

Referee

T. Gerach→

4.15

yellows per match

0.28

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.8%: “FC Schalke 04 to win”. Second comes “1. FC Magdeburg to win” at 28.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.65 for FC Schalke 04, 1.27 for 1. FC Magdeburg.
The highest double chance value is 73.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,121 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Schalke 04 to win45.8%

Draw26.1%

1. FC Magdeburg to win28.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

19	Fouls	8

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

FC Schalke 04 lead at half-time39.7%

Level at half-time40.5%

1. FC Magdeburg lead at half-time19.8%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Schalke 04 ahead or level80.2%

12 — not level at half-time59.5%

X2 — level or 1. FC Magdeburg ahead60.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1121 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Schalke 04: at least 11Actual: 19
1. FC Magdeburg: at least 11Actual: 8

Corners

FC Schalke 04: at least 5Actual: 4
1. FC Magdeburg: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Schalke 04 score1.70

Attack: FC Schalke 04 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Magdeburg's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.70 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals 1. FC Magdeburg score1.21

Attack: 1. FC Magdeburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Schalke 04 concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.9%2–110.3%1–08.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.