2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 23

SV Elversberg–Eintracht Braunschweig

3–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 February 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Waldstadion Kaiserlinde, Spiesen-Elversberg

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'SV ElversbergL. Petkov (assist: A. Condé)
23'SV ElversbergL. Petkov (assist: J. Gyamerah)
35'Eintracht BraunschweigA. Opoku (assist: J. Gomez)
75'SV ElversbergD. Mokwa (assist: L. Petkov)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SV Elversberg		Eintracht Braunschweig
12	Shots	7
4	Shots on target	4
12	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	0
1	Offsides	1
59%	Possession	41%
491	Passes	351
415	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SV Elversberg 2.07 · Eintracht Braunschweig 0.89. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots SV Elversberg 12 · Eintracht Braunschweig 7; on target 4 and 4.
SV Elversberg kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

F. Wagner→

5.67

yellows per match

0.67

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 59.6%: “SV Elversberg to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.94 for SV Elversberg, 0.99 for Eintracht Braunschweig.
The highest double chance value is 82.7% (1X — SV Elversberg win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,118 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SV Elversberg to win59.6%

Draw23.1%

Eintracht Braunschweig to win17.3%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

SV Elversberg lead at half-time42.4%

Level at half-time39.9%

Eintracht Braunschweig lead at half-time17.7%

First-half double chance

1X — SV Elversberg ahead or level82.3%

12 — not level at half-time60.1%

X2 — level or Eintracht Braunschweig ahead57.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1118 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SV Elversberg: at least 10Actual: 7
Eintracht Braunschweig: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

SV Elversberg: at least 6
Eintracht Braunschweig: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SV Elversberg score2.07

Attack: SV Elversberg score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: Eintracht Braunschweig's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.07 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Eintracht Braunschweig score0.89

Attack: Eintracht Braunschweig score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: SV Elversberg concede 15% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.89 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.6%2–111.0%2–010.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.