2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 23

Karlsruher SC–Holstein Kiel

3–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 February 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: BBBank Wildpark, Karlsruhe

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 38%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'Karlsruher SCM. Wanitzek (assist: Louey Ben Farhat)
61'Karlsruher SCLouey Ben Farhat (assist: S. Jung)
83'Karlsruher SCM. Wanitzek
90'Holstein KielM. Muller

Match statistics

Match statistics
Karlsruher SC		Holstein Kiel
14	Shots	15
7	Shots on target	4
11	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	4
3	Offsides	0
32%	Possession	68%
236	Passes	533
160	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Karlsruher SC 1.63 · Holstein Kiel 1.41. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Karlsruher SC 14 · Holstein Kiel 15; on target 7 and 4.
Holstein Kiel kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

F. Prigan→

5.24

yellows per match

0.12

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.5%: “Karlsruher SC to win”. Second comes “Holstein Kiel to win” at 35.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.44 for Karlsruher SC, 1.39 for Holstein Kiel.
The highest double chance value is 72.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,118 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Karlsruher SC to win37.5%

Draw27.2%

Holstein Kiel to win35.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

23	Fouls	12

5	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Karlsruher SC lead at half-time30.0%

Level at half-time40.5%

Holstein Kiel lead at half-time29.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Karlsruher SC ahead or level70.5%

12 — not level at half-time59.5%

X2 — level or Holstein Kiel ahead70.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1118 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Karlsruher SC: at least 11Actual: 23
Holstein Kiel: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

Karlsruher SC: at least 5Actual: 3
Holstein Kiel: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Karlsruher SC score1.63

Attack: Karlsruher SC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Holstein Kiel's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.63 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Holstein Kiel score1.41

Attack: Holstein Kiel score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Karlsruher SC concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.41 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%2–19.3%1–28.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.