2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 23

SV Darmstadt 98–Fortuna Düsseldorf

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 February 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor, Darmstadt

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'SV Darmstadt 98F. Hornby (assist: M. Richter)
11'Fortuna DüsseldorfJ. de Wijs (assist: F. Muslija)
88'SV Darmstadt 98Matej Maglica (assist: M. Richter)
90+6'Fortuna DüsseldorfJ. Daland · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
SV Darmstadt 98		Fortuna Düsseldorf
14	Shots	18
4	Shots on target	9
10	Shots inside the box	12
9	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	11
0	Offsides	1
54%	Possession	46%
446	Passes	361
365	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SV Darmstadt 98 1.87 · Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.10. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots SV Darmstadt 98 14 · Fortuna Düsseldorf 18; on target 4 and 9.

Referee

M. Bacher→

5.15

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.6%: “SV Darmstadt 98 to win”. Second comes “Fortuna Düsseldorf to win” at 26.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.69 for SV Darmstadt 98, 1.23 for Fortuna Düsseldorf.
The highest double chance value is 74.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,118 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SV Darmstadt 98 to win47.6%

Draw25.9%

Fortuna Düsseldorf to win26.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	14

4	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–1

SV Darmstadt 98 lead at half-time33.0%

Level at half-time43.5%

Fortuna Düsseldorf lead at half-time23.5%

First-half double chance

1X — SV Darmstadt 98 ahead or level76.5%

12 — not level at half-time56.5%

X2 — level or Fortuna Düsseldorf ahead67.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1118 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SV Darmstadt 98: at least 10Actual: 12
Fortuna Düsseldorf: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

SV Darmstadt 98: at least 4Actual: 4
Fortuna Düsseldorf: at least 4Actual: 11

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SV Darmstadt 98 score1.87

Attack: SV Darmstadt 98 score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.87 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fortuna Düsseldorf score1.10

Attack: Fortuna Düsseldorf score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SV Darmstadt 98's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.8%2–110.4%1–08.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.