2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 23

SpVgg Greuther Fürth–Arminia Bielefeld

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Friday, 20 February 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Fürth

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 24%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'SpVgg Greuther FürthB. Hrgota (assist: J. Elvedi)
19'Arminia BielefeldRobin Knoche (assist: T. Handwerker)
53'SpVgg Greuther FürthD. Srbeny (assist: N. Futkeu)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SpVgg Greuther Fürth		Arminia Bielefeld
5	Shots	15
3	Shots on target	3
5	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
0	Corners	10
2	Offsides	5
45%	Possession	55%
371	Passes	444
291	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.31 · Arminia Bielefeld 1.54. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots SpVgg Greuther Fürth 5 · Arminia Bielefeld 15; on target 3 and 3.
Arminia Bielefeld kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

W. Haslberger→

5.56

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.9%: “Arminia Bielefeld to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.13 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 1.72 for Arminia Bielefeld.
The highest double chance value is 76.5% (X2 — draw or Arminia Bielefeld win).
These values were computed from 1,116 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win23.5%

Draw25.6%

Arminia Bielefeld to win50.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	18

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

SpVgg Greuther Fürth lead at half-time21.0%

Level at half-time39.4%

Arminia Bielefeld lead at half-time39.6%

First-half double chance

1X — SpVgg Greuther Fürth ahead or level60.4%

12 — not level at half-time60.6%

X2 — level or Arminia Bielefeld ahead79.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1116 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SpVgg Greuther Fürth: at least 12Actual: 11
Arminia Bielefeld: at least 12Actual: 18

Corners

SpVgg Greuther Fürth: at least 4
Arminia Bielefeld: at least 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SpVgg Greuther Fürth score1.31

Attack: SpVgg Greuther Fürth score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Arminia Bielefeld's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Arminia Bielefeld score1.54

Attack: Arminia Bielefeld score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SpVgg Greuther Fürth concede 24% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.54 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.8%1–210.7%0–19.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.