2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 22

1. FC Magdeburg–Arminia Bielefeld

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 15 February 2026 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

32'Arminia BielefeldM. Bauer (assist: T. Handwerker)
88'Arminia BielefeldBenjamin Bediako Boakye (assist: N. Sarenren Bazee)

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Magdeburg		Arminia Bielefeld
19	Shots	14
3	Shots on target	4
12	Shots inside the box	10
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	4
1	Offsides	0
60%	Possession	40%
438	Passes	288
354	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Magdeburg 1.78 · Arminia Bielefeld 1.32. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots 1. FC Magdeburg 19 · Arminia Bielefeld 14; on target 3 and 4.
1. FC Magdeburg kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

M. P. Eckermann→

3.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.5%: “1. FC Magdeburg to win”. Second comes “Arminia Bielefeld to win” at 28.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.70 for 1. FC Magdeburg, 1.34 for Arminia Bielefeld.
The highest double chance value is 74.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,113 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Magdeburg to win45.5%

Draw25.6%

Arminia Bielefeld to win28.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

1. FC Magdeburg lead at half-time32.3%

Level at half-time39.7%

Arminia Bielefeld lead at half-time28.0%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Magdeburg ahead or level72.0%

12 — not level at half-time60.3%

X2 — level or Arminia Bielefeld ahead67.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1113 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Magdeburg: at least 12Actual: 8
Arminia Bielefeld: at least 12Actual: 14

Corners

1. FC Magdeburg: at least 4Actual: 4
Arminia Bielefeld: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Magdeburg score1.78

Attack: 1. FC Magdeburg score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: Arminia Bielefeld's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.78 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Arminia Bielefeld score1.32

Attack: Arminia Bielefeld score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Magdeburg's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.32 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.4%2–110.2%1–27.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.