2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 22

1. FC Nürnberg–Karlsruher SC

5–1

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Friday, 13 February 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

25'1. FC NürnbergJ. Justvan
28'1. FC NürnbergJ. Justvan (assist: A. Grimaldi)
41'1. FC NürnbergM. Zoma (assist: R. Nzingoula)
50'1. FC NürnbergM. Zoma (assist: R. Nzingoula)
58'Karlsruher SCM. Wanitzek (penalty)
65'1. FC NürnbergM. Zoma (assist: Berkay Yilmaz)

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Nürnberg		Karlsruher SC
12	Shots	11
8	Shots on target	2
9	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	6
2	Offsides	2
43%	Possession	57%
403	Passes	527
336	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Nürnberg 1.75 · Karlsruher SC 1.28. On the pitch: 5-1.
Shots 1. FC Nürnberg 12 · Karlsruher SC 11; on target 8 and 2.
Karlsruher SC kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

T. Stieler→

3.71

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.0%: “1. FC Nürnberg to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.92 for 1. FC Nürnberg, 1.16 for Karlsruher SC.
The highest double chance value is 78.7% (1X — 1. FC Nürnberg win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,107 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Nürnberg to win55.0%

Draw23.8%

Karlsruher SC to win21.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–0

1. FC Nürnberg lead at half-time29.5%

Level at half-time42.4%

Karlsruher SC lead at half-time28.2%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Nürnberg ahead or level71.8%

12 — not level at half-time57.6%

X2 — level or Karlsruher SC ahead70.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1107 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Nürnberg: at least 10Actual: 11
Karlsruher SC: at least 12Actual: 14

Corners

1. FC Nürnberg: at least 5Actual: 4
Karlsruher SC: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Nürnberg score1.75

Attack: 1. FC Nürnberg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Karlsruher SC concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.75 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Karlsruher SC score1.28

Attack: Karlsruher SC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Nürnberg's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.6%2–110.9%2–08.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.