2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 21

Karlsruher SC–Fortuna Düsseldorf

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 8 February 2026 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: BBBank Wildpark, Karlsruhe

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

41'Fortuna DüsseldorfC. Itten (assist: C. Lenz)
54'Karlsruher SCDženis Burnić (assist: P. Scholl)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Karlsruher SC		Fortuna Düsseldorf
6	Shots	19
2	Shots on target	5
3	Shots inside the box	10
4	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	3
1	Offsides	1
56%	Possession	44%
502	Passes	388
427	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Karlsruher SC 1.62 · Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.40. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Karlsruher SC 6 · Fortuna Düsseldorf 19; on target 2 and 5.
Karlsruher SC kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

F. Bickel→

7.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.9%: “Fortuna Düsseldorf to win”. Second comes “Karlsruher SC to win” at 27.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.30 for Karlsruher SC, 1.72 for Fortuna Düsseldorf.
The highest double chance value is 74.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,104 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Karlsruher SC to win27.6%

Draw25.5%

Fortuna Düsseldorf to win46.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Karlsruher SC lead at half-time31.7%

Level at half-time44.2%

Fortuna Düsseldorf lead at half-time24.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Karlsruher SC ahead or level75.8%

12 — not level at half-time55.8%

X2 — level or Fortuna Düsseldorf ahead68.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1104 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Karlsruher SC: at least 10Actual: 13
Fortuna Düsseldorf: at least 10Actual: 15

Corners

Karlsruher SC: at least 4Actual: 3
Fortuna Düsseldorf: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Karlsruher SC score1.62

Attack: Karlsruher SC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.62 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fortuna Düsseldorf score1.40

Attack: Fortuna Düsseldorf score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Karlsruher SC concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.4%1–210.3%2–17.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.