2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 21

SV Darmstadt 98–1. FC Kaiserslautern

4–0

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 7 February 2026 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor, Darmstadt

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'SV Darmstadt 98F. Hornby (penalty)
29'SV Darmstadt 98F. Lakenmacher (assist: F. Hornby)
45'SV Darmstadt 98K. Klefisch (assist: M. Richter)
90'SV Darmstadt 98L. Marseiler (assist: N. Schmidt)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SV Darmstadt 98		1. FC Kaiserslautern
15	Shots	16
9	Shots on target	2
10	Shots inside the box	11
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
6	Corners	6
1	Offsides	1
47%	Possession	53%
412	Passes	460
328	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SV Darmstadt 98 1.87 · 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.31. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots SV Darmstadt 98 15 · 1. FC Kaiserslautern 16; on target 9 and 2.

Referee

H. Osmers→

4.32

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.1%: “SV Darmstadt 98 to win”. Second comes “1. FC Kaiserslautern to win” at 27.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.68 for SV Darmstadt 98, 1.24 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern.
The highest double chance value is 74.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,103 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SV Darmstadt 98 to win47.1%

Draw25.9%

1. FC Kaiserslautern to win27.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	17

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–0

SV Darmstadt 98 lead at half-time27.2%

Level at half-time41.9%

1. FC Kaiserslautern lead at half-time30.9%

First-half double chance

1X — SV Darmstadt 98 ahead or level69.1%

12 — not level at half-time58.1%

X2 — level or 1. FC Kaiserslautern ahead72.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1103 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SV Darmstadt 98: at least 12Actual: 8
1. FC Kaiserslautern: at least 11Actual: 17

Corners

SV Darmstadt 98: at least 5Actual: 6
1. FC Kaiserslautern: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SV Darmstadt 98 score1.87

Attack: SV Darmstadt 98 score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Kaiserslautern's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.87 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals 1. FC Kaiserslautern score1.31

Attack: 1. FC Kaiserslautern score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SV Darmstadt 98's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.8%2–110.4%1–08.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.