2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 21

SV Elversberg–Hertha BSC

0–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 7 February 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Waldstadion Kaiserlinde, Spiesen-Elversberg

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

42'Hertha BSCP. Klemens (assist: Paul Seguin)
58'Hertha BSCL. Schuler (assist: F. Reese)
78'Hertha BSCT. Leistner (assist: J. Dudziak)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SV Elversberg		Hertha BSC
20	Shots	6
4	Shots on target	5
13	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	5
0	Offsides	2
59%	Possession	41%
460	Passes	320
376	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SV Elversberg 1.77 · Hertha BSC 1.10. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots SV Elversberg 20 · Hertha BSC 6; on target 4 and 5.
SV Elversberg kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

L. Benen→

5.07

yellows per match

0.43

reds per match

matches of data

14 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.4%: “SV Elversberg to win”. Second comes “Hertha BSC to win” at 29.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.63 for SV Elversberg, 1.30 for Hertha BSC.
The highest double chance value is 73.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,100 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SV Elversberg to win44.4%

Draw26.2%

Hertha BSC to win29.3%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

SV Elversberg lead at half-time38.4%

Level at half-time42.0%

Hertha BSC lead at half-time19.6%

First-half double chance

1X — SV Elversberg ahead or level80.4%

12 — not level at half-time58.0%

X2 — level or Hertha BSC ahead61.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1100 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SV Elversberg: at least 9Actual: 9
Hertha BSC: at least 13Actual: 13

Corners

SV Elversberg: at least 5Actual: 7
Hertha BSC: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SV Elversberg score1.77

Attack: SV Elversberg score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: Hertha BSC's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.77 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hertha BSC score1.10

Attack: Hertha BSC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SV Elversberg concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.9%2–110.1%1–27.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.