2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 21

SC Paderborn 07–1. FC Nürnberg

2–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 7 February 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

26'SC Paderborn 07S. Klaas (penalty)
29'SC Paderborn 07L. Curda
51'1. FC NürnbergRafael Lubach · red card
75'1. FC NürnbergL. Lochoshvili (assist: Berkay Yilmaz)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SC Paderborn 07		1. FC Nürnberg
15	Shots	7
7	Shots on target	3
7	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
6	Corners	5
6	Offsides	2
55%	Possession	45%
403	Passes	326
332	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SC Paderborn 07 1.91 · 1. FC Nürnberg 1.00. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots SC Paderborn 07 15 · 1. FC Nürnberg 7; on target 7 and 3.
SC Paderborn 07 kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

E. Weisbach→

4.44

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.4%: “SC Paderborn 07 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.75 for SC Paderborn 07, 1.22 for 1. FC Nürnberg.
The highest double chance value is 74.7% (1X — SC Paderborn 07 win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,100 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SC Paderborn 07 to win49.4%

Draw25.3%

1. FC Nürnberg to win25.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 2–0

SC Paderborn 07 lead at half-time25.1%

Level at half-time43.3%

1. FC Nürnberg lead at half-time31.6%

First-half double chance

1X — SC Paderborn 07 ahead or level68.4%

12 — not level at half-time56.7%

X2 — level or 1. FC Nürnberg ahead74.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1100 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SC Paderborn 07: at least 12Actual: 16
1. FC Nürnberg: at least 9Actual: 14

Corners

SC Paderborn 07: at least 5Actual: 6
1. FC Nürnberg: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SC Paderborn 07 score1.91

Attack: SC Paderborn 07 score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Nürnberg's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.91 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals 1. FC Nürnberg score1.00

Attack: 1. FC Nürnberg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SC Paderborn 07 concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.00 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.4%2–110.6%1–08.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.