2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 21

FC Schalke 04–Dynamo Dresden

2–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 7 February 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: VELTINS-Arena, Gelsenkirchen

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

52'FC Schalke 04E. Džeko (assist: A. Aouchiche)
70'FC Schalke 04E. Džeko (assist: S. El-Faouzi)
78'Dynamo DresdenH. Kuruçay (own goal)
87'Dynamo DresdenT. Keller

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Schalke 04		Dynamo Dresden
16	Shots	9
5	Shots on target	2
9	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	1
0	Offsides	0
44%	Possession	56%
337	Passes	454
236	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Schalke 04 1.64 · Dynamo Dresden 1.07. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots FC Schalke 04 16 · Dynamo Dresden 9; on target 5 and 2.
Dynamo Dresden kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

T. Welz→

4.52

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.2%: “FC Schalke 04 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.67 for FC Schalke 04, 1.02 for Dynamo Dresden.
The highest double chance value is 78.3% (1X — FC Schalke 04 win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,100 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Schalke 04 to win52.2%

Draw26.1%

Dynamo Dresden to win21.7%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

FC Schalke 04 lead at half-time32.1%

Level at half-time40.8%

Dynamo Dresden lead at half-time27.1%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Schalke 04 ahead or level72.9%

12 — not level at half-time59.2%

X2 — level or Dynamo Dresden ahead67.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1100 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Schalke 04: at least 11Actual: 15
Dynamo Dresden: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

FC Schalke 04: at least 5Actual: 7
Dynamo Dresden: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Schalke 04 score1.64

Attack: FC Schalke 04 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Dynamo Dresden's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.64 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Dynamo Dresden score1.07

Attack: Dynamo Dresden score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Schalke 04 concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.07 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%2–110.6%1–010.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.