2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 20

Dynamo Dresden–Arminia Bielefeld

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 1 February 2026 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion, Dresden

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

43'Dynamo DresdenC. Daferner (assist: J. Sterner)
67'Arminia BielefeldT. Handwerker (penalty)
90+1'Dynamo DresdenR. Wagner · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Dynamo Dresden		Arminia Bielefeld
12	Shots	17
5	Shots on target	6
8	Shots inside the box	8
5	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	5
0	Offsides	4
47%	Possession	53%
417	Passes	467
326	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Dynamo Dresden 1.54 · Arminia Bielefeld 1.32. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Dynamo Dresden 12 · Arminia Bielefeld 17; on target 5 and 6.

Referee

F. Wagner→

6.00

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.2%: “Dynamo Dresden to win”. Second comes “Arminia Bielefeld to win” at 35.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.34 for Dynamo Dresden, 1.33 for Arminia Bielefeld.
The highest double chance value is 71.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,095 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Dynamo Dresden to win36.2%

Draw28.1%

Arminia Bielefeld to win35.7%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	3

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Dynamo Dresden lead at half-time31.2%

Level at half-time40.0%

Arminia Bielefeld lead at half-time28.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Dynamo Dresden ahead or level71.2%

12 — not level at half-time60.0%

X2 — level or Arminia Bielefeld ahead68.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1095 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Dynamo Dresden: at least 11Actual: 13
Arminia Bielefeld: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Dynamo Dresden: at least 4Actual: 3
Arminia Bielefeld: at least 5Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Dynamo Dresden score1.54

Attack: Dynamo Dresden score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Arminia Bielefeld's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.54 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Arminia Bielefeld score1.32

Attack: Arminia Bielefeld score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Dynamo Dresden's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.32 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%2–19.0%1–28.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.