2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 20

1. FC Kaiserslautern–SV Elversberg

1–3

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 31 January 2026 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Fritz Walter Stadion, Kaiserslautern

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'SV ElversbergL. Petkov (penalty)
45'1. FC KaiserslauternM. Rohr (own goal)
45+5'1. FC KaiserslauternLeon Robinson · red card
55'SV ElversbergD. Mokwa (assist: T. Zimmerschied)
86'SV ElversbergL. Schnellbacher

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Kaiserslautern		SV Elversberg
5	Shots	18
1	Shots on target	9
2	Shots inside the box	13
6	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	2
1	Offsides	1
37%	Possession	63%
285	Passes	501
218	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.53 · SV Elversberg 1.54. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots 1. FC Kaiserslautern 5 · SV Elversberg 18; on target 1 and 9.
SV Elversberg kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

D. Aytekin→

3.40

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.2%: “SV Elversberg to win”. Second comes “1. FC Kaiserslautern to win” at 32.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.39 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern, 1.58 for SV Elversberg.
The highest double chance value is 73.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,094 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Kaiserslautern to win32.5%

Draw26.3%

SV Elversberg to win41.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	15

3	Yellow cards	3

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

1. FC Kaiserslautern lead at half-time23.1%

Level at half-time43.7%

SV Elversberg lead at half-time33.2%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Kaiserslautern ahead or level66.8%

12 — not level at half-time56.3%

X2 — level or SV Elversberg ahead76.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1094 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Kaiserslautern: at least 12Actual: 10
SV Elversberg: at least 11Actual: 15

Corners

1. FC Kaiserslautern: at least 4Actual: 2
SV Elversberg: at least 5Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Kaiserslautern score1.53

Attack: 1. FC Kaiserslautern score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: SV Elversberg's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.53 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SV Elversberg score1.54

Attack: SV Elversberg score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Kaiserslautern's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.54 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.8%1–29.8%2–18.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.