2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 20

Eintracht Braunschweig–Karlsruher SC

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 31 January 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Eintracht-Stadion, Braunschweig

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

19'Eintracht BraunschweigK. Ehlers

Match statistics

Match statistics
Eintracht Braunschweig		Karlsruher SC
14	Shots	9
5	Shots on target	0
9	Shots inside the box	7
0	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	4
0	Offsides	2
45%	Possession	55%
386	Passes	469
316	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Eintracht Braunschweig 1.45 · Karlsruher SC 1.51. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Eintracht Braunschweig 14 · Karlsruher SC 9; on target 5 and 0.
Karlsruher SC kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

W. Haslberger→

5.45

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.4%: “Eintracht Braunschweig to win”. Second comes “Karlsruher SC to win” at 27.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.68 for Eintracht Braunschweig, 1.27 for Karlsruher SC.
The highest double chance value is 74.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,091 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Eintracht Braunschweig to win46.4%

Draw25.9%

Karlsruher SC to win27.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	9

4	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Eintracht Braunschweig lead at half-time20.8%

Level at half-time40.6%

Karlsruher SC lead at half-time38.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Eintracht Braunschweig ahead or level61.4%

12 — not level at half-time59.4%

X2 — level or Karlsruher SC ahead79.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1091 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Eintracht Braunschweig: at least 10Actual: 10
Karlsruher SC: at least 11Actual: 9

Corners

Eintracht Braunschweig: at least 4Actual: 6
Karlsruher SC: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Eintracht Braunschweig score1.45

Attack: Eintracht Braunschweig score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Karlsruher SC concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.45 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Karlsruher SC score1.51

Attack: Karlsruher SC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Eintracht Braunschweig's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%2–110.3%1–07.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.