2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 20

VfL Bochum–FC Schalke 04

2–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 31 January 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Bochum

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

1'VfL BochumK. Miyoshi (assist: G. Holtmann)
43'VfL BochumP. Hofmann (assist: G. Holtmann)

Match statistics

Match statistics
VfL Bochum		FC Schalke 04
10	Shots	12
6	Shots on target	2
7	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
2	Corners	4
4	Offsides	2
38%	Possession	62%
340	Passes	549
245	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: VfL Bochum 1.44 · FC Schalke 04 1.34. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots VfL Bochum 10 · FC Schalke 04 12; on target 6 and 2.
FC Schalke 04 kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

M. Bacher→

5.17

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.2%: “VfL Bochum to win”. Second comes “FC Schalke 04 to win” at 30.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.38 for VfL Bochum, 1.15 for FC Schalke 04.
The highest double chance value is 71.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,091 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

VfL Bochum to win41.2%

Draw28.7%

FC Schalke 04 to win30.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	13

4	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

VfL Bochum lead at half-time31.3%

Level at half-time44.4%

FC Schalke 04 lead at half-time24.3%

First-half double chance

1X — VfL Bochum ahead or level75.7%

12 — not level at half-time55.6%

X2 — level or FC Schalke 04 ahead68.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1091 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

VfL Bochum: at least 11Actual: 15
FC Schalke 04: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

VfL Bochum: at least 4Actual: 2
FC Schalke 04: at least 5Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals VfL Bochum score1.44

Attack: VfL Bochum score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Schalke 04 concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.44 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Schalke 04 score1.34

Attack: FC Schalke 04 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: VfL Bochum's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.6%1–010.1%2–19.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.