2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 20

1. FC Nürnberg–Preußen Münster

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 30 January 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

56'1. FC NürnbergM. Zoma
63'Preußen MünsterJ. Hendrix (assist: M. Kirkeskov)

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Nürnberg		Preußen Münster
17	Shots	10
5	Shots on target	4
8	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	2
0	Offsides	0
54%	Possession	46%
439	Passes	385
358	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Nürnberg 1.55 · Preußen Münster 1.24. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots 1. FC Nürnberg 17 · Preußen Münster 10; on target 5 and 4.

Referee

F. Prigan→

5.19

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.7%: “1. FC Nürnberg to win”. Second comes “Preußen Münster to win” at 28.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.54 for 1. FC Nürnberg, 1.19 for Preußen Münster.
The highest double chance value is 72.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,089 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Nürnberg to win44.7%

Draw27.2%

Preußen Münster to win28.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	15

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

1. FC Nürnberg lead at half-time33.0%

Level at half-time44.0%

Preußen Münster lead at half-time23.1%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Nürnberg ahead or level76.9%

12 — not level at half-time56.0%

X2 — level or Preußen Münster ahead67.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1089 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Nürnberg: at least 11Actual: 7
Preußen Münster: at least 13Actual: 15

Corners

1. FC Nürnberg: at least 5Actual: 7
Preußen Münster: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Nürnberg score1.55

Attack: 1. FC Nürnberg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Preußen Münster's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.55 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Preußen Münster score1.24

Attack: Preußen Münster score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Nürnberg's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%2–110.1%1–09.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.