2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 19

SV Elversberg–VfL Bochum

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 25 January 2026 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Waldstadion Kaiserlinde, Spiesen-Elversberg

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

24'VfL BochumM. Pannewig
53'SV ElversbergL. Petkov

Match statistics

Match statistics
SV Elversberg		VfL Bochum
22	Shots	7
6	Shots on target	3
13	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
9	Corners	2
2	Offsides	0
63%	Possession	37%
544	Passes	323
469	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SV Elversberg 1.92 · VfL Bochum 1.22. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots SV Elversberg 22 · VfL Bochum 7; on target 6 and 3.
SV Elversberg kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

R. Kampka→

4.83

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.7%: “SV Elversberg to win”. Second comes “VfL Bochum to win” at 25.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.72 for SV Elversberg, 1.22 for VfL Bochum.
The highest double chance value is 74.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,086 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SV Elversberg to win48.7%

Draw25.6%

VfL Bochum to win25.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	12

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

SV Elversberg lead at half-time35.0%

Level at half-time43.0%

VfL Bochum lead at half-time22.0%

First-half double chance

1X — SV Elversberg ahead or level78.0%

12 — not level at half-time57.0%

X2 — level or VfL Bochum ahead65.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1086 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SV Elversberg: at least 9Actual: 9
VfL Bochum: at least 13Actual: 12

Corners

SV Elversberg: at least 6Actual: 9
VfL Bochum: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SV Elversberg score1.92

Attack: SV Elversberg score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: VfL Bochum's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.92 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals VfL Bochum score1.22

Attack: VfL Bochum score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SV Elversberg's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.6%2–110.5%1–08.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.