2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 19

SC Paderborn 07–Preußen Münster

2–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 25 January 2026 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

2'Preußen MünsterE. Amenyido (assist: J. ter Horst)
28'Preußen MünsterYassine Bouchama · red card
50'SC Paderborn 07S. Tigges (assist: L. Curda)
83'SC Paderborn 07S. Tigges (assist: R. Obermair)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SC Paderborn 07		Preußen Münster
28	Shots	8
8	Shots on target	2
23	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
7	Corners	6
2	Offsides	1
66%	Possession	34%
575	Passes	292
494	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SC Paderborn 07 1.83 · Preußen Münster 0.96. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots SC Paderborn 07 28 · Preußen Münster 8; on target 8 and 2.
SC Paderborn 07 kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

T. Gerach→

4.16

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.5%: “SC Paderborn 07 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.88 for SC Paderborn 07, 1.02 for Preußen Münster.
The highest double chance value is 81.3% (1X — SC Paderborn 07 win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,086 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SC Paderborn 07 to win57.5%

Draw23.8%

Preußen Münster to win18.7%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–1

SC Paderborn 07 lead at half-time30.4%

Level at half-time44.2%

Preußen Münster lead at half-time25.4%

First-half double chance

1X — SC Paderborn 07 ahead or level74.6%

12 — not level at half-time55.8%

X2 — level or Preußen Münster ahead69.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1086 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SC Paderborn 07: at least 12Actual: 9
Preußen Münster: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

SC Paderborn 07: at least 6Actual: 7
Preußen Münster: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SC Paderborn 07 score1.83

Attack: SC Paderborn 07 score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: Preußen Münster's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.83 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Preußen Münster score0.96

Attack: Preußen Münster score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SC Paderborn 07 concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.96 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.9%2–111.0%2–09.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.