2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 19

1. FC Magdeburg–Dynamo Dresden

1–2

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 24 January 2026 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 20%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

29'1. FC MagdeburgM. Żukowski (assist: B. Atik)
34'Dynamo DresdenK. Amoako
45'Dynamo DresdenT. Keller

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Magdeburg		Dynamo Dresden
21	Shots	13
5	Shots on target	3
12	Shots inside the box	11
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
10	Corners	5
0	Offsides	1
63%	Possession	37%
520	Passes	293
430	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Magdeburg 1.95 · Dynamo Dresden 1.25. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots 1. FC Magdeburg 21 · Dynamo Dresden 13; on target 5 and 3.
1. FC Magdeburg kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

M. Burda→

4.37

yellows per match

0.05

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.5%: “1. FC Magdeburg to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.92 for 1. FC Magdeburg, 1.10 for Dynamo Dresden.
The highest double chance value is 80.1% (1X — 1. FC Magdeburg win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,085 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Magdeburg to win56.5%

Draw23.6%

Dynamo Dresden to win19.9%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

1. FC Magdeburg lead at half-time28.4%

Level at half-time39.4%

Dynamo Dresden lead at half-time32.2%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Magdeburg ahead or level67.8%

12 — not level at half-time60.6%

X2 — level or Dynamo Dresden ahead71.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1085 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Magdeburg: at least 11Actual: 9
Dynamo Dresden: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

1. FC Magdeburg: at least 5Actual: 10
Dynamo Dresden: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Magdeburg score1.95

Attack: 1. FC Magdeburg score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: Dynamo Dresden's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.95 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Dynamo Dresden score1.25

Attack: Dynamo Dresden score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Magdeburg's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.6%2–110.9%2–09.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.