2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 19

Hannover 96–Fortuna Düsseldorf

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 24 January 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Heinz-von-Heiden-Arena, Hannover

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'Hannover 96D. Yokota (assist: K. Oudenne)
47'Hannover 96B. Källman (assist: E. Saad)
49'Fortuna DüsseldorfE. Egouli (assist: C. Rasmussen)
57'Fortuna DüsseldorfE. Egouli · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hannover 96		Fortuna Düsseldorf
10	Shots	7
4	Shots on target	2
7	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	2
3	Offsides	0
52%	Possession	48%
480	Passes	435
408	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hannover 96 1.83 · Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.09. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Hannover 96 10 · Fortuna Düsseldorf 7; on target 4 and 2.

Referee

P. Ittrich→

4.20

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.6%: “Hannover 96 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.86 for Hannover 96, 1.11 for Fortuna Düsseldorf.
The highest double chance value is 78.9% (1X — Hannover 96 win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,082 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hannover 96 to win54.6%

Draw24.3%

Fortuna Düsseldorf to win21.1%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

Hannover 96 lead at half-time31.7%

Level at half-time45.1%

Fortuna Düsseldorf lead at half-time23.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Hannover 96 ahead or level76.9%

12 — not level at half-time54.9%

X2 — level or Fortuna Düsseldorf ahead68.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1082 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hannover 96: at least 11Actual: 17
Fortuna Düsseldorf: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

Hannover 96: at least 4Actual: 5
Fortuna Düsseldorf: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hannover 96 score1.83

Attack: Hannover 96 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.83 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fortuna Düsseldorf score1.09

Attack: Fortuna Düsseldorf score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hannover 96's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.0%2–110.9%2–08.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.