2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 19

SV Darmstadt 98–1. FC Nürnberg

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 23 January 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor, Darmstadt

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

60'SV Darmstadt 98H. Akiyama
75'SV Darmstadt 98L. Marseiler

Match statistics

Match statistics
SV Darmstadt 98		1. FC Nürnberg
10	Shots	18
5	Shots on target	5
8	Shots inside the box	13
5	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	6
2	Offsides	0
48%	Possession	52%
435	Passes	467
358	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SV Darmstadt 98 1.87 · 1. FC Nürnberg 1.13. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots SV Darmstadt 98 10 · 1. FC Nürnberg 18; on target 5 and 5.

Referee

J. Wienefeld→

7.00

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.0%: “SV Darmstadt 98 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.67 for SV Darmstadt 98, 1.15 for 1. FC Nürnberg.
The highest double chance value is 75.1% (1X — SV Darmstadt 98 win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,080 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SV Darmstadt 98 to win49.0%

Draw26.1%

1. FC Nürnberg to win24.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	7

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

SV Darmstadt 98 lead at half-time32.8%

Level at half-time42.0%

1. FC Nürnberg lead at half-time25.3%

First-half double chance

1X — SV Darmstadt 98 ahead or level74.7%

12 — not level at half-time58.0%

X2 — level or 1. FC Nürnberg ahead67.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1080 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SV Darmstadt 98: at least 12Actual: 8
1. FC Nürnberg: at least 11Actual: 7

Corners

SV Darmstadt 98: at least 4Actual: 3
1. FC Nürnberg: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SV Darmstadt 98 score1.87

Attack: SV Darmstadt 98 score above the league average (15% more).

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Nürnberg's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.87 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals 1. FC Nürnberg score1.13

Attack: 1. FC Nürnberg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SV Darmstadt 98's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.1%2–110.5%1–09.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.