2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 18

1. FC Kaiserslautern–Hannover 96

3–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 18 January 2026 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Fritz Walter Stadion, Kaiserslautern

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 31%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

67'Hannover 96E. Leopold (assist: W. Taïbi)
73'1. FC KaiserslauternI. Prtajin (assist: L. Sirch)
76'Hannover 96W. Taïbi · red card
90'1. FC KaiserslauternS. Şahin
90'1. FC KaiserslauternN. Skytta (assist: S. Şahin)

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Kaiserslautern		Hannover 96
16	Shots	11
8	Shots on target	2
13	Shots inside the box	6
0	Goalkeeper saves	5
5	Corners	6
0	Offsides	2
48%	Possession	52%
372	Passes	418
286	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.47 · Hannover 96 1.52. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots 1. FC Kaiserslautern 16 · Hannover 96 11; on target 8 and 2.

Referee

M. Jollenbeck→

6.00

yellows per match

1.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.6%: “Hannover 96 to win”. Second comes “1. FC Kaiserslautern to win” at 31.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.36 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern, 1.60 for Hannover 96.
The highest double chance value is 73.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,077 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Kaiserslautern to win31.2%

Draw26.3%

Hannover 96 to win42.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

1. FC Kaiserslautern lead at half-time29.7%

Level at half-time42.2%

Hannover 96 lead at half-time28.1%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Kaiserslautern ahead or level71.9%

12 — not level at half-time57.8%

X2 — level or Hannover 96 ahead70.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1077 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Kaiserslautern: at least 12Actual: 12
Hannover 96: at least 13Actual: 14

Corners

1. FC Kaiserslautern: at least 4Actual: 5
Hannover 96: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Kaiserslautern score1.47

Attack: 1. FC Kaiserslautern score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hannover 96's defence is close to the league average (0.85×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hannover 96 score1.52

Attack: Hannover 96 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Kaiserslautern's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.52 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.9%1–29.9%2–18.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.